Prognostication

®

Portent of Things to Come

The COVID-14 pandemic was more than a major interruption in our home and work lives. It created a long-term new normal. The leaders of large organizations now understand that teleworking is not just an occasional method to be used when needed.

  • Teleworking has proven to be efficient, as in proven productive, and more important as cost-effective. Why pay an enormous overhead for a building mortgage, HVAC, and janitorial or the equivalent rent?

  • Working in an office has socializing benefits to the individual, but none to the organization.

  • Teams can telework in real time too. There are numerous interactive, web-based platform available now. All of this was made real by the pandemic.

  • The office cost has shifted from the organization to the individual.

  • The kitchen office with kids around still requires childcare.

  • Buying a house will now mean buying an extra bedroom that is really an office for you and maybe your spouse or friend. The real estate ads will promote this.

  • The benefit to the employee is the cost and time savings of no commute. For those in major metropolitan areas, the time savings would be significant.

Types of Change Events

Socio-cultural: wars, famine, genocide

Biological: pandemic

Political: elections, liberal, conservative

Natural: earthquake, tsunami, volcano, hurracane/typhoon 

Economic: recession, depression

Technology: outer space, inner space, artificial intelligence, metallurgy, energy

Commodities: oil, coal, timber, metals, diamonds, livestock

The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system